EMEA Metals & Mining Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: Chinese exports are the relief valve for ex-China aluminium tightness, diverging copper demand trends

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Metals & Mining Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: Chinese exports are the relief valve for ex-China aluminium tightness, diverging copper demand trends

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

09 June 2026

EMEA Metals & Mining

Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: Chinese

exports are the relief valve for ex-China aluminium

tightness, diverging copper demand trends

JPM Commodities Research team (led by Greg Shearer) published its latest base European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACmetals supply & demand tracker (link). In copper, the team notes that Chinese Patrick Jones

end-use consumption fell 4% YoY in April (+1.2% YoY YTD through 4M’26) (44-20) 7742-5964

amid continued weakness in renewables installations and white goods, while patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

apparent consumption increased 9% YoY on inventory draws following the Q4’25/ J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Q1’26 buyer strike. On US copper tariffs, our colleagues' view remains that it is Dominic O'Kane

likely that the Trump administration will enact an escalating tariff, as was laid out (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

in last July's original executive order (i.e. starting at 15% in 2027, increasing to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

30% a year later) to ensure all imported copper in US stays onshore. For

Rosie Jia

aluminium, Chinese semis exports remain the key relief valve for ex-China (44-20) 3493-7448

market tightness, with LME inventories having drawn to 330kt, while Chinese rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

stocks sit near multi-year highs at ~1.4Mt, and refined output is up 3.4% YoY as J.P. Morgan Securities plc

producers capitalise on elevated prices, although heavy bauxite reliance on Guinea Varun Bhattad

(75% of imports) is a key risk. In zinc, concentrate imports fell 10% YoY with spot (91-22) 6157-5027