Lodging Takeaways From Our Lodging Outlook Webinar With CoStar’s Jan Freitag

Research evidence excerpt

Lodging Takeaways From Our Lodging Outlook Webinar With CoStar’s Jan Freitag

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

09 June 2026

Lodging

Takeaways From Our Lodging Outlook Webinar With

CoStar’s Jan Freitag

Gaming & Lodging

Daniel Politzer, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-0110

daniel.politzer@jpmorgan.com

Michael Hirsh, CFA

We hosted a webinar with Jan Freitag, CoStar’s National Director for Hospitality (1-212) 622-0295

michael.hirsh@jpmchase.com

Market Analytics, to review the firm’s updated US lodging outlook, as CoStar

Samuel Nielsenraised its FY26 RevPAR growth forecast to +2.8% y/y from its prior +0.6% y/y.

(1-212) 622-1366

Overall, the tone was positive, with CoStar noting its +2.8% US RevPAR forecast samuel.nielsen@jpmchase.com

may prove conservative given recent trends; despite easier RevPAR comparisons, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

its RevPAR forecast is just +1.8% in 2H26 vs. 3.9% in 1H26. Other key topics

included (1) World Cup (booking window is short, and RevPAR growth is expected

to be ADR-driven); (2) Hotel profitability: the outlook is slightly more favorable, The authors wish to thank Kartik Sood of

reflecting higher expected RevPAR; (3) Development: Construction activity the J.P. Morgan Global Research Center

remains slow, with a muted pace of new supply. for contributions to this report.

• The fundamental outlook for lodging remains strong. (1) CoStar expects

demand growth to continue across all price points, with luxury outperforming

and the high-end customer showing no pushback on higher ADRs. (2) YTD

occupancy gains from midscale through upper-upscale are laying the

groundwork for positive ADR growth as the year progresses. (3) CoStar sees

US hotel supply remaining constrained as elevated interest rates continue to

slow domestic pipeline growth.