European Aviation Daily: Icarus – 08 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Aviation Daily: Icarus – 08 June 2026

Barclays | European Aviation Daily

The conflict has nevertheless affected Etihad’s financial trajectory. The airline had been

targeting a 10% operating margin this year, up from 8% last year, but Neves said it will no longer

meet that target after disruption in March, April and May. Although operations are recovering in

June, he said the airline will not be fully “back on track” until August.

We remain of the view that the return to full operations by the Gulf carriers will see a sharp

reduction in the fares that European and Asia on carriers are enjoying on Asian routes, whichare

currently being sold at a significant premium to pre war levels.

Bloomberg (7 June 2026) also carried an interview with IAG CEO Luis Gallego who flagged that

the Asian benefit European airlines enjoy will not last.

IATA AGM – Global Industry outlook downgraded

At the IATA AGM in Rio over the weekend IATA published its twice yearly industry forecast and it

unsurprisingly lowered the profit outlook for the industry for 2026 to an EBIT margin of 4.1%

relative to its previous December 2025 estimate of 6.9^ and 2025’s 7.2%.

The profit downgrade for Europe is less than for the rest of the world, reflecting the higher fuel

hedging in Europe. Europe’s EBIT margin is marked down to 4.6% from the previous 6.9%

estimate and 2025’s 6.7%. In Asia the new 2026 EBIT margin forecast is 3.5% against 4.9%

before and 5.6% in 2025. North America sees margins lowered to 4.4% from the previous 6.1%

estimate and 2025’s 6.4%.

The IATA reports is here: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-

reports/global-outlook-for-air-transport-june-2026/

At the net profit level IATA’s forecast represents a halving of forecast profits to $23bn in 2026,