LatAm Commodities Strategy "Selective Re-Pricing; Favor Oil/Steel" Greiner

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Commodities Strategy "Selective Re-Pricing; Favor Oil/Steel" Greiner

Global Research

7 June 2026ab

LatAm Commodities Strategy Equities

Latin AmericaSelective Re-Pricing; Favor Oil/Steel

Basic Materials

Caio Greiner

A changing outlook for commodities after an oil supply shock; Pref. Oil and Steel Analyst

The Middle East conflict has arguably changed the outlook for commodities. Before caio.greiner@ubs.com

the conflict, we believed we could be entering a major commodity re-pricing cycle, +55-11-2767 6294

with several signals/tailwinds in play: favorable prospects for interest rate cuts, Tasso Vasconcellos

risk-on flows moving away from the US, and a weaker USD. All of this was further Analyst

amplified by rising geopolitical risks and rising inflation concerns, triggering what tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

became known as the debasement/HALO trade - capital moving away from USD safe +55-11-2767 6683

havens and into tangible/real assets. But now, we are no longer talking a demand- Myles Allsop

side re-pricing; instead, we are facing an oil supply shock, and many of those Analyst

previous pillars are now being challenged. Higher-for-longer oil prices are now a myles.allsop@ubs.com

given (UBSe at US$90/bbl for 2026 and US$80/bbl for 2027), which is worsening the +44-20-7568 1693

global growth-inflation mix. Multiple central banks around the world are already Arthur Biscuola

hiking interest rates, and the market is now pricing in a Fed hike in December, with Associate Analyst

the USD strengthening as a result. arthur.biscuola@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6963

This backdrop should ultimately lead to commodity demand destruction, and we Joao Barichello

have become more cautious on the continuation of broad-based outperformance in Associate Analyst

commodity equities.