Banks & Asset Managers (AO) | MontePaschi at the centre of Italy's new banking consolidation

Research evidence excerpt

Banks & Asset Managers (AO) | MontePaschi at the centre of Italy's new banking consolidation

News comment

08 June 2026

Sébastien Barthélemi

Head of Credit Research

+33 1 70 39 74 76

Banks & Asset Managers sbarthelemi@keplercheuvreux.com

Italy

MontePaschi at the centre of Italy's new banking consolidation

Key points:

The circumstances surrounding MontePaschi (not covered) have become increasingly contentious, with heightened competition

and divergent interests with first Banco BPM (Buy Tier2/Hold AT1) proposing a merger-of-equals dialogue, and Intesa Sanpaolo

(Buy Tier2/Hold AT1), which subsequently launched a voluntary public tender and exchange offer in partnership with Unipol

(Hold RT1).

The two approaches have different credit and strategic profiles: Banco BPM presents its proposal as a consensual domestic

banking combination, centred on scale, territorial complementarity and a pro forma CET1 ratio of c. 15%, while Intesa frames its

bid as a larger European-scale wealth management, protection and advisory transaction, funded primarily by newly issued Intesa

shares, plus a EUR1.0 cash component per MPS share.

The main differentiating features of Intesa’s proposal are the upfront antitrust de-risking through a binding disposal agreement

with Unipol covering the MPS brand, c. 635 branches and most central structures, and its stated objective of achieving the

transaction with no social impact.

IntesaSP's run-rate synergy target is also materially larger than Banco BPM’s proposal, at c. EUR2.9bn pre-tax per year by 2029,

split between c. EUR1.5bn of cost synergies and c. EUR1.4bn of revenue synergies after revenue attrition, against c. EUR2.1bn of

pre-tax integration charges, compared with Banco BPM’s more than EUR1.1bn of pre-tax run-rate synergies and c. EUR1.1bn of