Iran disruption tracker #66: Is OPEC quota compensation for lost output on the table for Jun7?

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #66: Is OPEC quota compensation for lost output on the table for Jun7?

ource of global crude supply flexibility at a time when markets are already facing elevated geopolitical risk.

●Global Supply Rewiring Accelerates: South Korea will triple crude imports from Canada this year and expand

LNG purchases from future Canadian export projects, highlighting how major Asian consumers are rapidly

diversifying away from Middle East supply dependence following the regional energy shock.

●Iraq Seeks Alternative Export Routes: Iraq plans to triple crude exports through the Kurdistan–Ceyhan pipeline

corridor within three months as Baghdad attempts to mitigate the impact of continued Strait of Hormuz

disruptions. The Iraqi government has also ordered oil companies in Kurdistan to resume operations, underscoring

the urgency of restoring non-Hormuz export capacity.

●Governments Move to Shield Consumers: Japan approved an additional $19.4bn support package, including

substantial fuel subsidies, to offset the inflationary impact of Middle East energy disruptions. The move reflects

growing concern among energy-importing nations that elevated oil and gas prices may persist.

Things to watch

●Market Focus: Four key variables: (1) the duration of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, (2) the success of alternative

supply routes from Iraq, Canada, and elsewhere, (3) potential tightening from Russian oil sanctions enforcement,

and (4) whether the conflict broadens further into Gulf civilian infrastructure.

●US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that President Donald Trump’s three “red lines” remain

prerequisites for any agreement: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran surrendering highly enriched uranium and

ending its nuclear program.