Bite-Sized Channel Check Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Bite-Sized Channel Check Takeaways

June 4, 2026

Company: Risks That May Impede Achievement of the Recommendation, Rating or Target

Price:

Starbucks Downside risks: 1) SSS deceleration is prolonged; 2) Increased competition from

high growth smaller peers 3) Initiatives as part of "Back to Starbucks" do not

materialize into traffic acceleration.

McDonald's Risks to the Upside Include: 1) US Comp momentum accelerates materially above

the MSD run-rate in 4Q; 2) Guest counts in the US turn positive and remain positive

for multiple quarters; 3) Wendy’s breakfast entry does not result in market share

losses and McDonald’s reverses its 5 year period of market share losses in breakfast;

and 4) FCF generation exceeds expectations and the company pulls forward its

share repurchases.

Risks to the Downside Include: 1) Comp momentum decelerates in the US; 2) Traffic

counts remain negative and decline further; 3) New entrants in the breakfast daypart

take share and existing competitors continue to comp ahead of MCD (e.g. Starbucks);

4) Management turnover results in some operational headwinds.

Restaurant Brands International Risks to the downside: 1) Comp momentum decelerates significantly at Tim Hortons

and Burger King; 2) Wendys breakfast launch takes significant market share and

requires significant incremental marketing spend which impacts RBIs margins; 3)

Franchisee and Franchisors tensions increase disrupting operational efficiency

Dutch Bros, Inc. Risks: 1) SSS decelerates with tough compares; 2) BROS loses share to high growth

competitors; 3) Food rollout is underwhelming ; 4) Food slows throughput; 5) Coffee

prices spike again.

Wolfe Research, LLC Research Disclosures:

Company: Research Disclosures:

Starbucks None

McDonald's None

Restaurant Brands International None