Wake That SaaS Up Daily 6/4/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Wake That SaaS Up Daily 6/4/2026

June 4, 2026

Earnings Previews

Rubrik (RBRK)

Key Thoughts Heading Into Earnings. RBRK is set to report F1Q27 earnings on Thursday, June 4th, after market close,

in which will be our first print covering the stock. While we are new to the name and still gathering more partner

perspectives in the form of checks, those we did speak with had not picked up any material changes in customer demand

related to increasing memory prices. One partner we spoke with told us that the mix of reasons across their broader

security practice around deals lost (whether it be budget constraints, projects deferred, competitive pricing, etc) had

not changed from historical trends. We would also note that partners called out seeing some opportunities emerge for

selling data backup and recovery into their customer bases due to AI-related concerns, but also that the space showing

up in more strategic conversations has not hit an inflection point yet. Shares are up ~43% since we launched coverage

with an Outperform rating, versus the IGV +5% and CVLT +19% (initiated at Peer Perform) and now trade at ~9.1x EV/

CY27 Revenue. While RBRK is not yet adding the scale of incremental revenues at the level of our Scaled Heavyweight

Comp Group (>$500M in CY26), we do see the potential in our upside model for close to $500M in incremental revenues

this year after excluded the impacts of material rights, and that Scaled Growth group trades at a median multiple of 14x

CY27 revenue, or a ~50% premium to RBRK today.

●F1Q27 Revenue. Guidance for total revenue is for $366M (+31.4% Y/Y; -3.1% Q/Q), with consensus subscription

revenue at $354M (+33.4% Y/Y). We expect management guided closer to the pin on revs following FY26 in which

average quarterly beats came in at $28M/9.2%.