As 301 Looms, Tariffs Have Quietly But Materially Eased

Research evidence excerpt

As 301 Looms, Tariffs Have Quietly But Materially Eased

June 4, 2026

But realized ETRs have consistently lagged these modeled numbers, and that disparity has only grown in 2026.

As shown in Exhibit 2 below, the realized ETR is now down to 6.8%—the lowest level since before Liberation Day.

Realized ETRs are down a full 4 percentage points since their late 2025 peak (compared to a 3pp drop in our modeled

ETR), representing a 38% reduction in the tariff footprint (compared to 21% in our model). This is a stark reversal. To

whatever extent tariffs dragged on growth in late 2025, that headwind has been sharply reduced—particularly since

it has been concurrent with the gradual clearing of the most acute uncertainty around tariff policy after the US-China

"Busan truce" in October. We still face plenty of uncertainty about the details of tariff parameters, but companies aren't

in the same defensive crouch that many of them experienced around last year's tariff roller coaster.

Exhibit 2 - Realized ETRs Have Sharply Fallen, While Continuing to Undershoot Models

Source: Wolfe DC Policy, USITC

What exactly has driven this easing of tariffs? It's not just the SCOTUS decision on IEEPA. Exhibits 3 and 4, below,

break out the ETR trends by country, both with and without semis—because as shown in Exhibit 5 on page 5, semis

(which are largely exempt from tariffs) have surged as a share of total US imports as both volumes and prices have

shot upward. Exhibit 4 makes clear that the downtrend in realized ETRs persists even when screened ex-semis (from

a peak of 13.3% ex-semis in October to 8.9% in March), and the country breakouts in Exhibit 3 show that the easing

trend reflects a mix of factors—including the reduction of penalty rates on China and India and the implementation of