Restaurants Industry: Restaurants Weekly: Somethin’ Bruin?

Research evidence excerpt

Restaurants Industry: Restaurants Weekly: Somethin’ Bruin?

p structures, including BLMN: Bloomin Brands

the independent restaurants that have in recent years clawed back share of stomach lost CAKE: The Cheesecake Factory

to chains during and immediately after the COVID pandemic. For some investors, third CAVA: Cava

party aggregators also fit this bill. CBRL: Cracker Barrel

CMG: Chipotle

Growth on sale DNUT: Krispy Kreme

For those intrepid souls still looking at restaurant stocks, historically low valuations are DPZ: Domino’s Pizza

no small part of the appeal. Virtually no restaurant has escaped significant multiple DRI: Darden Restaurants

FWRG: First Watchcompression – even companies like Dutch Bros and Cava that continue to post high

JACK: Jack in the Boxsingle-digit same-store sales growth – but formerly high-flyers like Wingstop, Chipotle,

MCD: McDonald’sand Domino’s are among the most depressed. For those companies, the conversation PTLO: Portillo’s

has shifted from how high they can comp to whether there’s any growth still left. We QSR: Restaurant Brands Int’l / RBI

look at overall systemwide sales growth to find a steady state runrate, under the RBI: Restaurant Brands Int’l

assumption that slowing unit growth is the surest way to boost same store sales growth SBUX: Starbucks

for the remaining system. In all three cases, we think valuations are signaling SG: Sweetgreen

expectations of future systemwide sales growth that is less than half the pace of the SHAK: Shake Shack

recent past, making for compelling opportunities in our view. SYY: Sysco

TXRH: Texas Roadhouse

Chart of the week: Pizza pulse WEN: Wendy’s

Our Chart of the Week borrows from our recent work on the case for Domino’s and the WING: Wingstop

YUM: Yum Brandshealth of the pizza segment.

BK: Burger King