ORCL: F4Q26 Earnings Preview: Focused on Financing Needs of AI Infrastructure Buildout

Research evidence excerpt

ORCL: F4Q26 Earnings Preview: Focused on Financing Needs of AI Infrastructure Buildout

he evolving Stargate structure: with OpenAI having effectively 2026 14,926.0A 16,058.0A 17,190.0A 19,034.0E

abandoned the original first-party JV model in favor of bilateral 2027 19,084.0E 21,138.0E 23,389.0E 26,418.0E

EPS, Adj Diluted capacity leases, the ownership and financing demands of Oracle could 2025 1.39A 1.47A 1.47A 1.70A

look meaningfully different than originally anticipated. On the call, we 2026 1.47A 2.26A 1.79A 1.98E

will be focused on any update to Oracle's multi-year CapEx framework 2027 1.51E 1.73E 1.98E 2.46E

and any color on how Stargate restructuring has impacted Oracle's All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

financing obligations or capacity commitments going forward. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

○Watching for the pace of capacity ramp and OCI demand. A central

question for F4Q is whether Oracle can demonstrate that data center

capacity is coming online fast enough to meet the demand pipeline it

has been signaling. Management has consistently pointed to supply,

not demand, as the constraint for OCI growth, and we will be watching

for any update on MW additions, new campus announcements, and

the pace of GPU cluster deployments. RPO, which surpassed $550B

in F3Q26, is the clearest demand signal available, and we view a

continuation of strong RPO growth as critical. Any deceleration, or

color suggesting that deal activity slowed due to capacity constraints

rather than demand softness, will be a key differentiator for how the

market interprets the print, in our view.

○OpenAI concentration risks. Questions remain around OpenAI's

competitive positioning and implications for Oracle as its primary