Euro Area Rates Strategy: 期待は再び裏切られた

Research evidence excerpt

Euro Area Rates Strategy: 期待は再び裏切られた

IdeaM

バリュエーション手法とリスク

Below you will find a list of our current trade ideas, entry levels, entry dates, rationales,

and risks.

図表 8: Valuation Methodology and Risks

Interest Rate Strategy

Long TKYH8 2.64% 15/05/2026 We are positive on thetheshort-endforwards ofin themostcurveof ourandscenarios.expect yields to move below Risk to unchangedthe trade includefor a prolongedthe ECB hikingperiodandof leavingtime. rates

ERZ6Z7 flattener -4bp 15/05/2026 We think the ECB will have to bring rates back to current levels after hiking. Risk to unchangedthe trade includefor a prolongedthe ECB hikingperiodandof leavingtime. rates

Short RAGB 2/36 vs NETHER 7/36 14bp 24/4/2026 We think the sovereign is tradingfundamentals.rich to other countries with similar macro Risks to the tradeeasingincludefiscalEUconcerns.flexibility under the EDP

Long IRISH 10/32 vs short BGB 6/32 -19 10/04/2026 We think Ireland fundamentalsdraglookforattractiveBelgium.while downgrade risks remain a Risks to the trade include the Irish DMO tapping the sector.

Short FRTR 2/31 vs 2/29 and 5/33 -2bp 27/03/2026 The bond is currently tradingcurrentclose tospikeits richestin volatility.level and it has not reflected the Risks to the trade include lack of mean reversion.

2y2y €str/6s Widener 21.8bp 20/02/2026 The tradeand/orgivestighteningus cheapof liquidityexposureconditionsto a combinationin euro areaof increasingmoney markets.risk aversion The main looseningrisk comesoffromregulationspilloversin thefromUS.the recent

impact on the euro area economy from global tariff