Global Economic Briefing: The Weekly Worldview: North America Trade: From Rules to Discretion, from Autos to AI

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Global Economic Briefing: The Weekly Worldview: North America Trade: From Rules to Discretion, from Autos to AI

Idea

June 8, 2026 12:17 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing | North America Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Weekly Worldview: North Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comArunima Sinha +1 212 761-0370

Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

America Trade: From Rules to Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)

Rajeev Sibal

Senior Global EconomistDiscretion, from Autos to AI Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7201

As US trade policy becomes more discretionary, and the product Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

Chiwoong Lee

Principal Global Economistcomposition of US imports shifts, North American trade is being

Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

re-wired.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Mayank Phadke, CFA

EconomistMNorth American trade is being reshaped by two structural shifts that go well beyond Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

tariffs: a transition from rules-based policy to discretionary industrial policy, and a

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

sharp change in the composition of US import demand toward AI-linked goods. In Priyan Mody

our view, these forces will increasingly define both US trade patterns and the Economist

Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

trajectory of US goods inflation.

The first shift is institutional. The US has moved away from a rules-based framework

—where tariff schedules and preferential access anchored trade decisions—toward

a more discretionary, sector-specific approach tied to industrial policy objectives. As

we have highlighted in the past, this shift is most visible in the expanding use of