Maybank (MAY MK) (Neutral) - Negative surprise

Research evidence excerpt

Maybank (MAY MK) (Neutral) - Negative surprise

Global Markets Research

Maybank MBBM.KL MAY MK 29 May 2026

EQUITY: BANKS

RatingNegative surprise Remains Neutral

Target price

Reduced fromReiterate Neutral; lower TP to MYR11.30 MYR 11.30 MYR 12.40

Results below ours/consensus estimates: Maybank’s 1Q26 adjusted NPATAMI at Closing price MYR 10.50 28 May 2026MYR2.5bn was down 7% q-q and down 4% y-y and formed 22%/22% of our/Bloomberg

consensus estimates (Fig.1), and the weakest results vs expectation amongst banks in

Implied upsideour coverage reported-to-date. Sequentially, in spite of the improvement in NIM (+5bp q- +7.6%

q) due to liability management and a writeback on other provisions which was offset by

Market Cap (USD mn) 31,949.9

higher loan loss provisions, lower NOII and lower NII (due to higher base in 4Q25 due to ADT (USD mn) 47.0

one-off adjustment related to a corporate restructuring) were the main causes for the

miss. Relative performance chart

FY26E guidance unchanged, but downside revisions flagged: While management

has not changed any guidance [constant currency loan growth of ~4-5%, NIM 2.05-2.10%

(FY25: 2.05%), net credit cost of ~20bp, CTI <= 49%, ROE >=11.8% and payout ~70%],

they flagged potential downward revision risks in coming quarters given current run-rate

and energy price/supply shock, mainly to loans growth and ROE.

Reiterate Neutral, but cut earnings/TP: We lower NIM, loans growth and NOII, and

raise credit cost estimates, and overall cut FY26F/27F earnings by 8.5%/6.4% (Fig.3).

We think consensus will also likely revise earnings materially lower; as previously

consensus might have extrapolated 4Q25 NII momentum into FY26F, they might reset the

baseline level. We also maintain our dividend payout ratio estimate of 73% for FY26F,