Rakuten Bank (5838) Awaiting synergies unique to this form of reorganization; remaining Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Rakuten Bank (5838) Awaiting synergies unique to this form of reorganization; remaining Neutral

The terms of the alliance with Mizuho FG propose

establishing a framework for Rakuten Bank to acquire corporate loans originating at

Mizuho Bank. Up to lending targets and securitization methods, we think Rakuten Bank

will be able to acquire loan receivables with a relatively low risk weight.

We expect the synergistic effects related to maximization of the retail customer base to

include acceleration of cross-use and customers switching to Rakuten Bank for their

main bank account. Rakuten Bank customers made up about 55% of Rakuten Card users

and about 36% of Rakuten Securities users as of end-March 2026. Management is

aiming to increase the number of customers who use multiple Rakuten Group financial

services. The FY2029 target of at least ¥400 billion disclosed by Rakuten Bank and the

expected synergies of at least ¥85 billion do not factor in corporate customer base

maximization or leveraging of data technology.

Based on the above, we at least think the probability of achieving ¥53 billion or more in

financial synergies is sufficiently high. Regarding the targeted synergies from retail

customer base strengthening of at least ¥32 billion, we also see ample scope for benefits

from acceleration of cross-use. Given the mechanism for financial synergies described

above, we understand management’s comment that its interest rate sensitivity amount

will not change much between the former and new Rakuten Bank after the

reorganization. Our earnings forecasts discount our assumption that the BOJ hikes the

policy interest rate to 1.50% in June 2027, so we believe Rakuten Bank is highly likely

to attain the target it disclosed of at least ¥400 billion (which assumes a BOJ policy rate