NMDC Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

NMDC Model Update

Vibhav Zutshi, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(91-22) 6157-3585 08 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

NMDC is India’s largest iron ore producer and has benefited

from stable international iron ore prices, translating into price

hikes even as volume growth was muted in FY25. NMDC’s

capacity enhancement plans and healthy balance sheet (net cash)

are also positives. However, NMDC’s iron ore prices should see

downward pressure, as we expect global iron ore prices to

remain weak into FY28-29. NMDC has also seen relatively

softer production trends while India’s iron ore imports are rising.

Capex is set to increase sharply in FY27-28, which could lower

YTD 1m 3m 12m net cash levels. While India’s domestic iron ore demand should

Abs 11.0% 4.6% 18.4% 31.2% remain strong in tandem with rising steel consumption, the risk/

Rel 21.6% 7.4% 24.1% 36.8%

reward looks unfavorable to us. We rate the stock UW.

Company Data

Valuation

Shares O/S (mn) 8,792

52-week range (Rs) 97.49-66.79 Our Mar-27 PT of Rs75 is based on 5x one-year forward

Market cap ($ mn) 8,603 EBITDA, at mean levels.

Exchange rate 94.94

Free float (%) 34.3%

3M ADV (mn) 28.87 Performance Drivers

3M ADV ($ mn) 26.4

Volatility (90 Day) 36

Index NIFTY

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 9|4|9

Key Metrics (FYE Mar)

Rs in millions FY26A FY27E FY28E FY29E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 315,537 338,379 345,448 360,346

EBITDA 92,753 119,951 117,109 119,260

Adj. EBITDA 92,753 119,951 117,109 119,260

Adj. EBIT 88,142 114,880 111,632 113,454

Adj. net income 74,219 93,369 91,142 92,695

Net income 74,219 93,369 91,142 92,695

Adj. EPS 8.44 10.62 10.37 10.54

BBG EPS 8.48 9.51 9.94 -

Net debt (54,565) (57,368) (52,380) (56,596)