U.S. Machinery & Construction: Machinery at the Inflection: Durable or Narrow? You Decide

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Machinery & Construction: Machinery at the Inflection: Durable or Narrow? You Decide

Barclays | U.S. Machinery & Construction

FIGURE 3. CAT & CMI Adding Significant Capacity in Power; Other FIGURE 4. Earnings Bases Are Higher Because of M&A & Buybacks

Niche Verticals Too; Should Grow Sales Helping To Justify Valuation (Relative Too)

Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports

Bear Case

1. Demand Risk – Consumer markets are weak, limiting growth in key end markets

(Residential Construction, Automotive, Food Equipment), while China is a structurally

changed market where prior peaks – particularly in construction – may not be reachable.

2. Margin Risk – Margin expansion has been pulled forward from COVID-era pricing that was

above historical norms, making it harder to pass through tariffs and rising costs going

forward.

3. Backlog Risk – Backlogs are extended but largely skewed to one sector (Power), creating

elevated cancellation risk if AI-driven demand softens.

4. Competition & Capacity – New entrants (TYM, Kubota, Sany, etc.) and aggressive capacity

additions (CAT, CMI, Generac, Weichai) raise concerns around pricing pressure and a shift

away from historically oligopolistic market structures.

5. Macro / Policy – Restrictive monetary policy and higher tariffs are pressuring demand, while

municipal spending is at risk following a period of record funding and shifting government

priorities.

6. Inventories – Inventories are lower in certain markets, but the restock opportunity is

limited relative to prior cycles where production was more significantly reduced.

7. Commodities – Commodity prices are unlikely to act as a catalyst to reverse replacement

trends, particularly in mining and agriculture equipment.

8.