Carrefour (AO) | Buy | Carrefour-Leclerc price gap: beware the June effect!

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour (AO) | Buy | Carrefour-Leclerc price gap: beware the June effect!

Connecting the dots

Release date: 08 June 2026

François Digard

Head of French Equity Research, Food retail & TIC analyst

+33 1 70 81 57 47

fdigard@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyCarrefour

France | Food retail Beta Profile: MCap: EUR12.0bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR18.50 Bloomberg: CA FP Reuters: CARR.PA

Current Price: EUR16.30 Free float 86%

Up/downside: 13.5% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 65.6

YTD abs performance 14.5% Market data: 05 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 17.45/11.75

Carrefour-Leclerc price gap: beware the June effect!

Key points:

Olivier Dauvers published this morning the latest French food retail price index, Distriprix.

Last month, the Carrefour–Leclerc price gap had fallen to 5.0%, its lowest level since February 2020. This month, it widened to

6.4%. For comparison, the gap stood at 6.9% in June 2024 and 6.4% in June 2023.

This pattern repeats every year in June, when Leclerc runs a one-off promotional campaign. A single month’s data should

therefore not be overinterpreted.

A recurring June effect

As shown in the attached chart, this is the time of year when Leclerc releases its immediate-discount promotional catalogue. The

June effect is not a new trend signal. Excluding June, the Carrefour–Leclerc price gap has steadily narrowed over the past three

years, from 8.4% in 2023/24, to 5.7% in 2024/25, and 5.4% in 2025/26.

The trend is similar when comparing Carrefour with U and Intermarché. The average price gap has fallen from 5.8% to 2.3%

versus U, and from 4.8% to 1.8% versus Intermarché.

The underlying trend therefore remains well controlled. The key takeaway is clear: do not overinterpret a one-month June spike.

Chart 1:Carrefour–Leclerc price gap: a recurring June effect

Source: