European Economic Comment "Switzerland: Inflation unchanged in May, like..."

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment "Switzerland: Inflation unchanged in May, like..."

Global Research

4 June 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

Europe including UKSwitzerland: Inflation unchanged in May, likely

at the peak for now Franziska Fischer

Economist

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

+41-44-239 2054

Inflation unchanged at 0.6% y/y in May, still largely driven by energy Felix Huefner

Swiss inflation remained unchanged at 0.6% y/y in May, in line with our expectation but Economist

slightly below consensus of 0.7% y/y. Core inflation (our definition of headline excluding felix.huefner@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8280

energy and all food) also remained unchanged at 0.6% y/y. Specifically, goods (-0.2pp to

-0.4% y/y) and food inflation (-0.3pp to -1.2% y/y) fell in May, while services (+0.1pp to Anna Titareva

1.2% y/y) and energy (+0.6pp to 6.0% y/y) rose. Relative to our forecast, energy and Economist

food were broadly in line with our expectation, while goods inflation - in particular anna.titareva@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 5083

clothing - surprised to the downside and services came in stronger than expected. The

upside surprise in services was largely due to stronger rent inflation; it appears there has Reinhard Cluse

been barely any pass-through from last year's two mortgage reference rate declines to Economist

rents in existing contracts (see this note for the rent and reference rate mechanism). reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

Looking ahead, we're tracking inflation at 0.5% y/y for June, then hovering around that

level throughout the summer before a renewed moderate pickup from October onwards

to around 1% y/y by year-end/early 2027. Overall, we expect headline inflation to

average 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027/28.

Imported inflation falls back slightly due to non-oil imports