European Economic Comment "Sweden: Modest upside surprise in May inflati..."

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment "Sweden: Modest upside surprise in May inflati..."

Global Research

4 June 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

SwedenSweden: Modest upside surprise in May inflation

Franziska Fischer

Economist

Headline up 0.7pp to 1.5%, core up 0.5pp to 0.5%y/y franziska.fischer@ubs.com

+41-44-239 2054

For the first time in months, Swedish inflation surprised to the upside. According to the

flash estimate, CPIF rose 0.7pp to 1.5% y/y in May, slightly above consensus for 1.3% Reinhard Cluse

Economistand UBSe for 1.2%. CPIF ex energy rebounded from its 0% April reading to 0.5% y/y

reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

(consensus: 0.3%, UBSe: 0.4%). The Riksbank's forecast for May was for 1.6% y/y in +44-20-7568 6722

CPIF headline and 0.9% y/y in core, but the miss is fully explained by the large downside

surprise in April, with May actually reducing the forecast error. Felix Huefner

felix.huefner@ubs.com

Upside surprise possibly explained by travel-related services +49-69-1369 8280

The May increase was largely attributable to services inflation, which rose 1.3pp to 2.7%

Anna Titareva

y/y, while food (-4.7% y/y) and goods inflation (-0.7% y/y) remained negative and Economist

energy climbed 4.4pp to 18% y/y (Figure 1Swedeninflationanditscomponents,%m/mand%y/y). Relative to our forecasts, the main upside anna.titareva@ubs.com

surprise came from services. We saw a similar development in May Eurozone inflation, +44-20-7568 5083

likely reflecting the reversal of the Easter effect (which raised March inflation due to the

earlier timing of Easter but dampened April). Goods and energy inflation were also

slightly stronger than our forecast, but offset by another unexpectedly weak reading in

food. Food prices fell significantly in April because of a food VAT cut, but the momentum