First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Metal prices fall on escalating Mid ..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Metal prices fall on escalating Mid ..."

Australian Resources - WA Industrial Relations Risk: Industrial tensions at BHP's

Pilbara operations have escalated following coordinated union efforts at Port Hedland,

marking a step-change in bargaining pressure and increasing the risk of near-term

export disruption. With four unions now aligned and strike action looming across critical

port infrastructure (~290Mtpa), the situation introduces downside risk to shipments and

highlights a broader shift toward rising industrial relations pressure across the Pilbara.

Separately, we update UBS's spot scenario, which gauges price momentum should spot

prices be maintained. With the Middle East conflict supporting higher aluminum,

thermal coal and iron ore (and energy/shipping costs), MIN, S32, BHP, AAI, WHC and

FMG look sequentially better on spot fair value and FCF yield. Link to note. Source: UBS.

NEM - Key Questions and Investor Debates: Since the start of the Middle East

conflict, gold prices have declined ~15%, with GDX down ~25% and NEM

outperforming modestly (down ~17%). We expect gold prices to continue

consolidating near-term, with spot ~$4,500/oz implying downside risk to consensus

estimates for gold miners. At the same time, cost pressures are likely to become more

evident in 2Q results, suggesting the recent strong uptrend in consensus earnings for the

sector is likely to reverse. Despite broadly attractive spot valuations, we believe gold

equities are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, and we continue to prefer

the streamers (FNV, RGLD top picks). Against this backdrop, we view NEM as the most

defensive large-cap gold miner and our preferred senior producer, driven by: