First Read: Intrum AB "Capital raise terms announced. EGM next catalyst" (Buy)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Intrum AB "Capital raise terms announced. EGM next catalyst" (Buy)

ide investor feedback and discussions here.

12/27E 1.66 7.64

12/28E 1.98 10.77

A catalyst-rich next three months

Shares are expected to trade ex-rights on June 10th, following the shareholder vote on Johan Ekblom, CFA

AnalystJune 9th and ahead of prospectus publication. While we would expect some technical

johan.ekblom@ubs.com

pressure during the rights trading period, we see a clear sequence of catalysts that could

+44-20-7568 3580

support a stronger share price performance: (1) Closing of the rights issue (July 1), (2)

Potential rating agency upgrades post completion, (3) Possible renegotiation of the Joshua Humphreys

Associate Analystrevolving credit facility, (4) Refinancing of the 2027 bonds (callable from September

joshua.humphreys@ubs.com

2026). We would highlight that our base case remains conservative on both refinancing +44-20-7567 0385

timing and pricing, as well as on future investment levels, leaving scope for upside.

Valuation: Capital raise creates significant value.

As of tonight's close Intrum had a market cap of SEK 2.6 bn or SEK ~ 10 bn proforma for

the capital increase. Given a sustained reduction in interest expense (and increase in

earnings) as well as increased operational flexibility we think the capital increase will

create significant equity value. Our price target of SEK 28 assumes an equity value of SEK

15.8 bn post raise (based on 570 mn shares). Proforma for the announced terms this

could go to SEK ~4.9-5.0 per share (on an ex rights, post raise basis - all else equal)

which would be compared to a TERP (based on last night's close) of around SEK 3.2.

Highlights (SKrm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E