Allreal "Good momentum on Condominium business and attractive dividend yield"

Research evidence excerpt

Allreal "Good momentum on Condominium business and attractive dividend yield"

Allreal UBS Research

Estimate changes

We slightly lower our expectations on rental income, amid higher reported vacancy rate

in FY25 of 3.4% (up from 1.6% in FY24), although we do expect an improvement of the

vacancy rate back toward 3.1% by year-end. We expect the decline in vacancy rate to be

mostly driven out of expected further letting success in the company's properties in

Richtipark Wallisellen, as well as le Grand-Saconnex in Geneva, which currently have

vacancy rates of 17% and 31% respectively as of FY25. However, we would expect the

majority of further letting success to be coming toward H2 26, and therefore we expect

the vacancy rate for H1 26 to remain at around 3.4%. Yet, we continue to expect

positive rental income growth for FY26, mostly driven by the announced acquisition of

an office property in rue du Grand-Pré in Geneva, which net of several sell-downs of

residential properties in Geneva should add around CHF3m on rental income.

Additionally, we see rental income as further supported by finalisation of a residential

property in Renggerstrasse Zurich.

We raise our assumptions for other income, driven by i) continued strong momentum in

Development & Realisation (was up 23.6% yoy in FY25), as we expect two

condominium projects in Eggen (Lucerne) and Zumikon (Zurich) to ramp up, and ii) we

pencil in a gain of around CHF10m from residential property sales that took place in Q1

26. In revaluations we become slightly more cautious, but given continued high

amounts of capital raises in the Swiss real estate market, we would assume to continue

seeing further valuation uplifts. We see a slight potential risk from ongoing political