Amada "Still Buy; aiming for earnings growth through resource shift" (Buy)

Research evidence excerpt

Amada "Still Buy; aiming for earnings growth through resource shift" (Buy)

152.6 127.6 -16 131.7

sheet metal business, orders are recovering, particularly in Europe and the US, and

03/28E 172.5 177.6 3 150.5

earnings expansion alongside sales growth can be expected. We had the opportunity to

03/29E 192.4 197.2 3 148.9

speak with President Takaaki Yamanashi and confirm the company’s commitment to

improving capital efficiency through earnings growth and proactive shareholder returns. Tsubasa Sasaki

Analyst

Revising up our OP forecasts for FY3/28 and beyond tsubasa.sasaki@ubs.com

+813-5208 6207

We are revising our OP forecasts to ¥57.1bn for FY3/27 (from ¥67.7bn), ¥79.7bn for

FY3/28 (¥76.7bn), and ¥88.7bn for FY3/29 (¥85.8bn). For FY3/27, we are revising down

our OP forecast for both existing businesses and Via Mechanics due to delays in sales

recovery in North America caused by supply constraints, and because the full-scale sales

expansion of high-margin laser processing machines for FC-PKG substrates is expected

to begin in FY3/28 or later. On the other hand, for FY3/28, we expect accelerating

earnings growth due to earnings growth of Via Mechanics driven by the sales expansion

of laser processing machines, order and sales growth in existing businesses, gross

margin improvements alongside an improvement in the product mix and higher

utilisation rates, and progress in fixed cost reductions. As a result, we are revising up our

OP forecast (details on page 4). Reflecting the downward revision to our OP forecast, we

are revising down our FY3/27 EPS forecast by 16%.

Valuation:

Our price target is based on FY3/28E PER of 20X. In view of the growing sense of capex

recovery, we newly use the average for FY3/19-20, the previous earnings expansion

phase.