Sumitomo Pharma (4506): Reiterate Neutral; awaiting clearer visibility on growth drivers

Research evidence excerpt

Sumitomo Pharma (4506): Reiterate Neutral; awaiting clearer visibility on growth drivers

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Sumitomo Pharma (4506)

Reiterate Neutral; awaiting clearer

visibility on growth drivers

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 1,600 JPY | Price: 1,415 JPY

04 June 2026

Cutting price objective to ¥1,600, reiterate Neutral Equity

We revise our earnings forecasts following 4Q results. We raise our revenue forecasts

for the next five years by 11-13%, reflecting changes to segment revenue and the

addition of revenue from Xeplion, a long-acting injectable antipsychotic, among other Key Changes

factors. Meanwhile, we adjust core operating profit by around 5%, reflecting higher (¥) Previous Current

costs of sales and SG&A expenses in line with higher revenue. As a result, we lower our Price Obj. 1,750.00 1,600.00

price objective from ¥1,750 to ¥1,600, but reiterate our Neutral rating, taking into 2027E Rev (m) 483,200.0 541,700.0

account Sumitomo Pharma’s growth strategy, including external partnerships for its two 2028E Rev (m) 511,800.0 576,100.0

oncology assets, and expectations for a dividend resumption. 2029E Rev (m) 534,700.0 597,100.0

2027E EPS 184.37 226.54

Two oncology assets to enter partnership talks from 2H 2028E EPS 161.30 156.94

Expected events for the two oncology assets in 3Q (Oct-Dec) are: (1) interim P2 data 2029E EPS 164.59 150.71

readout for enzomenib in KMT2A-rearranged/NPM1-mutated AML; and (2) 2027E EBITDA (m) 105,000.0 104,700.0

determination of the recommended P3 dose for nuvisertib in myelofibrosis. Sumitomo 2028E EBITDA (m) 98,400.0 99,100.0

Pharma plans to proceed with full-scale partnership activities after obtaining the data, 2029E EBITDA (m) 100,700.0 95,600.0

aiming to conclude agreements from 2H FY3/27 to 1H FY3/28. In addition, Ph1/2 data