Managed Care: Trend Tracker: New data set implies 2Q26 trend -10bps y/y, April -150bps vs Q1

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Managed Care: Trend Tracker: New data set implies 2Q26 trend -10bps y/y, April -150bps vs Q1

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Managed Care

Trend Tracker: New data set implies 2Q26

trend -10bps y/y, April -150bps vs Q1

Industry Overview

Early April trend data -10bps y/y, slowed -150bps q/q 04 June 2026

Our latest April and lagged March data imply that trend closed at +2% y/y for 1Q26 after Equity

we implemented new data into our model (we estimated flat y/y with old model). When United States

comparing on a same data point basis, 2Q26 trend is -150bps below 1Q. The Managed Care

deceleration in trend mainly comes from Inpatient (-3.7% QTD) and Outpatient (-2.4%), Kevin Fischbeck, CFA

although Traditional Rx spend (+0.1%) and Specialty Rx spend (+8.9%) also slowed vs Research Analyst

Q1. Given the better 1Q26 and initial visibility into 2Q26, we are raising POs across the BofAS+1 646 855 5948

group (See Exhibit 1). kevin.fischbeck@bofa.com

Joanna Gajuk

Updating methodology to add Trad. & Specialty spend ResearchBofAS Analyst

Going forward, we are replacing overall Rx scripts, with two data different points: +1 646 855 3961

joanna.gajuk@bofa.com

Traditional and Specialty drug. Since Specialty drug trend in particular is skewed by the

Craig Jones

price of new drugs and not just utilization, this change should more accurately reflect Research Analyst

changes in trend (Higher correlation to MLRs) and improve the accuracy of this tracker. BofAS

+1 646 743 2020

Summary in Exhibit 2. craig.jones3@bofa.com

Joaquin Arriagada Martinez

Exhibit 2: We restate the model back to 1Q15; New input raises trend estimate to +2% for Research Analyst

1Q26 BofAS+1 646 855 1654

Y/y growth in volume metric by component of trend, most recent datapoint highlighted based on joaquin.arriagadamartinez@bofa.com