Emerging Insight: Mexico – Stability holds, growth lags

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Emerging Insight: Mexico – Stability holds, growth lags

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Emerging Insight

Mexico – Stability holds, growth lags

Key takeaways 04 June 2026

GEM Fixed Income Strategy &• Macro stability holds, with no clear imbalances, but growth has been persistently

Economics weak.

Global

• Low growth reflects productivity constraints and cyclical headwinds, though growth is

now a priority on the policy agenda. Carlos Capistran

LatAm and Canada Economist

• If weak growth persists, it could generate imbalances over time, particularly on the BofAS

fiscal front. +1 646 743 2921

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

David Hauner, CFA >>

By Carlos Capistran GlobalMLI (UK)EM FI/FX Strategist

Chart of the day: Mexico has a relatively small current account deficit david.hauner@bofa.com

Current Account (% of GDP) (2025) Claudio Irigoyen

Global Economist

8 BofAS

Current Account, % GDP (2025) claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

6 See Team Page for List of Analysts

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Netherlands Switzerland Korea Sweden Japan Germany China Italy France OECD AfricaSouth Mexico Canada Chile G7 Türkiye Belgium Colombia Kingdom ArabiaSaudi Brazil States United United

Source: BofA Global Research, OECD

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Mexico’s economy remains broadly stable, with no clear macro imbalances and only

small current account (CA) and primary fiscal deficits. This stability is a clear asset and

reflects a long‑standing policy preference to preserve macro discipline. However, growth

has been persistently weak for several years, reflecting deep structural constraints, most

notably weak productivity, and, more recently, elevated uncertainty and tight fiscal and

monetary policies. Low growth is therefore the central macro challenge. While the

current administration has placed growth higher on the policy agenda, a prolonged