Global Emerging Markets Weekly: Understanding Geopolitical transmission

Research evidence excerpt

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: Understanding Geopolitical transmission

Accessible version

Global Emerging Markets Weekly

Understanding Geopolitical transmission

The View: Understanding Geopolitical transmission 29 May 2026

The rise in geopolitical risk over the years was viewed as a known unknown – something Emerging Markets Weekly

hard to quantify and time as an event risk. Consequently it was recognized as a risk, but Global

not necessarily priced. This is starting to change as the supply chain and energy security

implications are clearly getting priced in inflation and EM risk premiums. – C. Piron Table of Contents

Asia Economics: Korea: Robust tech cycle momentum The View 2

We increased our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% yoy (from our early-April projection Asia Economics 4

of 1.9% yoy), marking a clear shift to above-trend expansion. We also see a further Asia Strategy 5

improvement in current account surplus to 15% of GDP this year. – B. Wu EEMEA Economics 6

EEMEA Strategy 8

Asia Strategy: India: Tug-of-war between RBI & markets LatAm Economics 10

Markets continue to challenge RBI’s slightly dovish policy guidance. RBI is focused Sovereign Strategy 12

heavily on domestic factors currently, primarily inflation outlook while keeping an eye on Credit Risk Premium Model 14

growth risks. – A. Gupta CTA Monitor in EM 15

EEMEA Economics: TRY: Navigating domestic uncertainty GEMsEM AlphaMacroTradeTablesRecommendations 1720

TRY sentiment calmer than in past episodes. With the underlying seasonally adjusted Research Analysts 43

monthly inflation trend running around 2.6% month on month, this still implies real lira

appreciation – albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previously. -H. Kucuk

David Hauner, CFA >>