Arctic: Shipping Daily - NMM, MPCC, HAFNI, CMBT, ALNG

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic: Shipping Daily - NMM, MPCC, HAFNI, CMBT, ALNG

above our price of USD 18.1m. The company provided revised guidance for the full year of 2026.

The revenue guidance is kept unchanged at USD 450-460m, while the EBITDA guidance is lifted

to USD 260-280m (240-260m). This compares to our and consensus estimates of USD 253m

and USD 252m. Thus, mid-point guidance imply a 7% upside to consensus EBITDA figures. The

company did not disclose the reason behind the guidance revision, but given that the company has

chartered out 99% of earnings days in '26 and the revenue guidance was unchanged, we argue

it's likely a consequence of gains related to vessel sales. The company highlights that the tight

tonnage list (forward availability down 30% y-o-y) and resilient demand outweigh the geopolitical

noise. In addition to Red Sea (12% demand uplift), congestion now absorb 5.3% of capacity (vs.

pre-pandemic baseline of 2.2%) and slow steaming adds another 2% of demand. What can reduce

the rate environment is in our view the orderbook which is standing at 38% for the total fleet. While

it is skewed towards the largest sizes as the feeder orderbook is 18% in comparison, it is still

worrisome. The company has 9 vessels open for the remainder of the year and securing contracts

here will be the next step to de-risk the equity story.

HAFNI Q1/26: Ticking many of the right boxes

On the back of an average TCE rate of USD 30.3k/d, HAFNI reported TCE revenues of

USD 282.5m (-3% vs ARCe, -7% vs Bloomberg Cons.). The company had a load-to-discharge

adjustment which impacted the revenues negative by USD 17.9m, which explains the miss.

However, the EBITDA of USD 198.6m was in line with consensus (-1%) as other operating income