Wanted: the world's last scaled delivery empire outside the US

Research evidence excerpt

Wanted: the world's last scaled delivery empire outside the US

May 26, 2026

Lower headline price is possible. German takeover law creates a material

gap between what is legally permissible and what is commercially viable.

The 3-month VWAP sits at approximately €21 and the 1-month VWAP at

approximately €27.60, with Uber's highest price paid in the 6-month look-

back period being the €20 Prosus purchase in April. Under the WpÜG,

the legally binding minimum offer price – the higher of 3-month VWAP

or 6-month highest paid – sits at around €27.60 if Uber files imminently,

meaning Uber retains substantial legal flexibility to file a formal offer well

below the €38 currently floated in press reports. However, while a filing

at the legal floor of €27.60 (as of now) would be compliant, it would be

commercially dead on arrival as institutional holders would simply refuse to

tender at a price materially below the €33 indicative bid already rejected by

the board. The real risk is not a filing at €27.60, but rather a lower headline

outcome achieved through other mechanisms: Uber re-cutting the price

pre-filing once diligence reveals higher remedy costs, shifting to a MENA/

Asia-only deal with lower total cash consideration, using regulatory or MAC

conditions to withdraw and re-engage on a restructured basis, or allowing

the minimum acceptance condition to fail and returning later after the

strategic review window has narrowed.

Valuation. We continue to value DHER using a blended framework,

combining our operating SOTP bear case with our break-up SOTP base

case. Given potential strategic interest from Uber and DoorDash, we also

introduce a bull-case SOTP using strategic-acquirer transaction multiples.

We reduce the bear-case weight to 10% (for reasons explained earlier),