Cantor Summit Soundbites: SATCOM tailwinds intact while SpaceX IPO sets the stage for sector re-rating

Research evidence excerpt

Cantor Summit Soundbites: SATCOM tailwinds intact while SpaceX IPO sets the stage for sector re-rating

May 26, 2026

may be too conservative on top-line development into FY27-28E (-4%

you decline on average), where we believe Ovzon can sustain meaningful

growth via leased capacity while preserving healthy profitability. The lower-

margin profile of leased capacity, however, reinforces the strategic logic for

additional proprietary satellites.

Ovzon-4 announcement increasingly likely this year. We came away more

confident that an Ovzon-4 announcement could come as early as this

year. The logic is straightforward: (i) proprietary capacity carries materially

higher margins than leased, so preserving mix quality requires adding

owned capacity ahead of Ovzon-3 saturation; (ii) the 2-3 year build

cycle means an announcement in 2026 is needed to bring incremental

proprietary capacity online by 2028-29 as Ovzon-3 hits full utilisation;

and (iii) Ovzon already owns 10 additional orbital slots with associated

frequency licences — a substantial competitive moat that underlines the

long-term growth optionality. Building rather than leasing is the right call, in

our view, where demand visibility is strong enough to underwrite the capex,

which appears increasingly the case given the NATO defence spending

trajectory.

SpaceX IPO, a sentiment kicker for the sector. The upcoming SpaceX IPO

should provide a further tailwind for the broader SATCOM sector. With

reported equity value of >$2T, SpaceX would trade at roughly 90x sales

and 105x EBITDA (Reuters). While SpaceX is fundamentally a different

business — LEO at consumer scale vs. Ovzon's defence-focused GEO —

strong sector sentiment historically lifts smaller, focused players on read-

across.