US Multi-Industry: US Manufacturing Onshoring: Some cyclical goods recovery, but more structural evidence on capex is harder to discern

Research evidence excerpt

US Multi-Industry: US Manufacturing Onshoring: Some cyclical goods recovery, but more structural evidence on capex is harder to discern

Equity Research

29 May 2026

US Multi-Industry

US Manufacturing Onshoring:

Some cyclical goods recovery, but

U.S. Multi-Industrymore structural evidence on capex

is harder to discern U.S.NEUTRALMulti-Industry

Julian Mitchell

Each new administration reignites the 'US manufacturing +1 212 526 1661

onshoring' narrative. This administration is more determined julian.mitchell@barclays.com BCI, US

than most, but the evidence for a real structural change Jimmy Yunhao Jiang

+1 212 526 6042among private sector manufacturers is very limited thus far.

jimmy.jiang@barclays.com

BCI, US

We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2026 Extel All-America Research Survey in the Electrical

Haemaru ChungEquipment & Multi-Industry category. View our analysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays »

+1 212 526 4758

haemaru.chung@barclays.comIn this report we look at various types of data, including exports / imports, construction

spending, manufacturing data, capital spending, manufacturing jobs, automation investment,

and more in order to assess whether there is any recent evidence of higher US Drew Smith

manufacturing shoring. +1 212 526 1325

drew.smith@barclays.com

The evidence remains very mixed (consistent with our last report). As we discussed in a BCI, US

recent report, there has been some natural re-stock / pre-buy driven recovery underway in

capital goods demand since late 2025 (i.e. reflecting COGS / inventory increases at customers,

rather than necessarily a US capex increase on their part - US manufacturing investment is

declining, while goods exports / imports are growing at a similar rate on a 2-year stack

basis).