Equity Market Review: What if there is a US-Iran deal?

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Market Review: What if there is a US-Iran deal?

Barclays | Equity Market Review

FIGURE 1. EU equities remain stuck in their post-war trading range, FIGURE 2. Energy shocks in recent decades were followed by sharp

with high dispersion between winners and losers drops in oil and steady increase in supply

150 100 Arab oil Ukraine war Gulf crisis US-Iraq warLibyawarcivil 135 embargo 80

105 60 Iranian

90 revolution 40

20 60

45 Iran 0

30 war

15 Hurricanes Iran -20

in US sanctions

0 -40

70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

Brent crude ($/bbl) Cum. excess oil supply (mbd, rhs)

War winners and losers are based on performance in the aftermath of the war

Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Secular growth themes in vogue, but beware of short squeeze in consumer/rate sensitive

laggards. The dispersion across thematic and factor performance has remained broadly intact

despite the war, with little change in underlying leadership. Momentum strategy has continued

to outperform steadily ytd, and despite some moderation in recent weeks, demand for secular

growth themes tied to strategic autonomy and next generation frontiers remains strong. In

practice, this has translated into sustained outperformance of AI enablers and investment cycle

beneficiaries. Space is the new hot theme now, with the few European stocks exposed to

satellites and aerospace seeing a surge in share price performance ahead of the expected big

IPO in the US. In contrast, investors still show little appetite to play a reversal in momentum via

beaten down stocks, like AI losers, bond proxies and consumer plays. As we discussed in a

recent report (Consumer stocks - what's next after the slump?, 13 May), the long term consumer