US Economic Data "May Nowcasts: ISM projected at 51.8" Musfeldt

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Data "May Nowcasts: ISM projected at 51.8" Musfeldt

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US Economic Data Economics

AmericasMay Nowcasts: ISM projected at 51.8

Ashley Musfeldt

Strategist

ashley.musfeldt@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 6041

Artour Danilov

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide an early read on May indicators

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide timely projections of several key monthly US artour.danilov@ubs.com

economic indicators ahead of the official releases and other forecasts. Non-traditional +44-20-7567 5203

big data is used to generate the Nowcasts using available data before the end of the Amanda Wilcox

month. These Nowcasts differ from the data forecasts published by the US Economics Economist

team, whose projections use a separate methodology and often incorporate additional amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

data. The May Nowcasts are shown in Figure 1. Links to the real-time history of the +1-212-713 3899

model-generated Nowcasts are below to allow clients to back-test and assess the signal.

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects Industrial Production to rise 1.53% Y/Y

UBS Evidence Lab’s latest Nowcast suggests that retail spending, excluding autos and

gasoline, is expected to edge up by 0.21% month over month in May. Core CPI is

projected to increase by 25 basis points, above the US Economics team’s forecast of 17

bps (link here). Rent components in the Nowcast are anticipated to rise by 38 bps, while

lodging is expected to decline by 315 bps. New vehicle prices are likely to fall by 32 bps,

while energy CPI is projected to increase by 164 bps.

The ISM Manufacturing Composite Index is estimated at 51.8, remaining below both

the Bloomberg consensus of 53.2 and April’s actual reading of 52.7. Industrial