US Daily Data Recap "Softer April activity data, claims steady" Watt

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "Softer April activity data, claims steady" Watt

Continuing claims rose 15K to 1786K in the week ending May 16, slightly above Initial and continuing claims move up

consensus (1784K) but in line with our forecast (1787K). Continuing claims for the week but just to levels seen around March.

ending May 9 were revised down 11K to 1771K. Continuing claims have come up off

the recent troughs, up 10K in between the payroll survey reference weeks, are

essentially back to where they were at the end of March — not much change. At 1779K,

the two-week moving average of continuing claims sits 125K below last year and has

noisily trended down since October 2025 (see chart above). That suggests that nothing

is breaking yet and despite the recent move up the level is still consistent with relative

stability in the labor market.

Figure 3: Claims summary table

Clai ms s umma

ry table

Source: DoL, Haver, UBS

Incomes revised lower, spending ok, saving rate under pressure

Personal incomes were flat in April, after downwardly revised 0.5% rise in March (0.6% Income growth was weak and

prior), and a flat print in February. Wages and salaries were up 0.2% in April, but the flat spending a little touch softer than

print largely reflected -2.7% swing lower in proprietors' income, unwinding the +2.7% expected in April.

rise seen in this components in March.

Disposable incomes declined -0.1% nominally and declined -0.5% in real terms in April,

on the heels of a -0.2% decline in March. With this slowing in real disposable incomes,

nominal spending was up 0.5% in April, and real spending 0.1%. That is a pretty soft

start to Q2 spending and could suggest some of the tax refund boost is being offset by

rising gasoline prices.