First Read: Universal Robina "2026 AIC: Price hikes test post-moratorium..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Universal Robina "2026 AIC: Price hikes test post-moratorium..."

Global Research

28 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesUniversal Robina

2026 AIC: Price hikes test post-moratorium Philippines

volume resilience Food Products

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target P68.00

Post-price hike volume outlook could soften

Branded Philippine revenues rose 10% YoY in 1Q26, driven by a 7ppt volume increase

and 2ppt pricing benefit, mainly from coffee. While URC sustained high single-digit to Price (27 May 2026) P60.50

double-digit growth in April, momentum slowed in May following industry-wide price RIC: URC.PS BBG: URC PM

increases after the DTI moratorium expired. Management considers June a crucial

Trading data and key metrics

indicator of underlying mass-market consumer sentiment.

52-wk range P98.90-59.90

Material pressures prompt pricing responses Market cap. P129b/US$2.10b

Freight and handling account for 5% to 8% of sales and a 25% increase in fuel costs Shares o/s 2,138m (ORD)

impacts OPM by 100bp. PET resin prices rose from US$800 to $1,600-1,700/MT, though Free float 43%

URC secured pre-peak costs through September. Concurrently, URC increased RTD Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,261

beverage prices by 8% and implemented more modest 2-3% hikes in other categories. Avg. daily value (m) P146.7

Value-focused low-priced SKUs were left unchanged to mitigate demand destruction. Common s/h equity (12/26E) P126b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

Transition toward ROIC-driven accountability Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.2x

Key performance metrics have expanded beyond sales and EBIT to target a double-digit EPS (UBS, diluted) (P)

ROIC compared to a WACC of 9-10%. Monitoring cash conversion cycle at the ground UBS Cons.

level helps staff understand ROIC accountability more easily.