First Read: ICTSI "2026 AIC:  Diversification supports resilience" (Buy)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: ICTSI "2026 AIC: Diversification supports resilience" (Buy)

e in play: UBS Cons.

normalization of supply chain disruptions in Mexico and Congo—previously driving 12/26E 0.55 0.58

elevated dwell times—will pressure yields, while some tariff increases and recently 12/27E 0.60 0.65

introduced fuel surcharges in select terminals provide partial support. New assets such 12/28E 0.69 0.74

as Durban and Batam are currently yield-dilutive, reflecting inherited below-market tariff

bases and a deliberate strategy to phase increases; however, both offer meaningful Mica Abaquita

Analyst

upside, with Batam tariffs potentially doubling (albeit still below portfolio average) and

mica.abaquita@ubs.com

Durban moving in line with inflation. +632-8784 8827

Capital allocation supports value creation

Capital allocation remains disciplined and growth-oriented, supported by strong cash

generation and balance sheet. According to management, ICTSI currently generates ~

$1.6–1.7bn in operating cash flow. After ~$740mn capex (likely elevated in the next few

years but still 30-35% of EBITDA) across key projects and US$400-500 in annual debt

service, there remains US$500-600mn available for dividends. Leverage remains low at

~1.39x debt/EBITDA, providing ample capacity for incremental borrowing and M&A.

Valuation: Reiterating our BUY rating

ICTSI's expansion pipeline remans intact, despite near-term headwinds. While near-term

growth is led by inorganic contributions, its diversified portfolio continues to underpin

resilient organic volumes despite regional disruptions. Strong cash generation and

disciplined capital allocation sustain both growth investments and shareholder returns.

See: Discipline and decentralisation drive value.