Australia Sustainability "Does it get any BESSer than this?" Brunton

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Sustainability "Does it get any BESSer than this?" Brunton

economics improve (solar sharer, bill management), value sharing becomes critical,

and failure to capture VPP participation or customer relationships remains an

ongoing risk we have flagged. APA continues to build out smaller-scale BESS

(75MW installed), highlighting broader infrastructure demand, but with less direct

exposure to retail/customer-side optionality.

Outlook: While current pricing is also supported by favourable renewable generation

and softer demand, these conditions may not last, with planned coal exits and AI-driven

demand growth ahead. However, we see batteries continue to play a key role - at a

minimum offsetting some demand pressures, and at best putting downward pressure

on prices.

$3.2bn+ left of resi subsidy: only ~$4bn of the battery subsidy has been

deployed, with ~$3.2bn remaining, pointing to continued acceleration in behind

the meter uptake (potentially +~3.2GWh).

+25GW in Utility scale pipeline: incl. commissioning, committed & anticipated

and >140GW publicly announced - making batteries the largest pipeline of any

technology (Figure 5AEMONEMGeneratorInformationasofApril2026.Anouncedbateryprojectslargerthananyothercategory). By FY30, if all anticipated and committed projects come

online, this would cover equivalent to ~52% of anticipated evening peak demand

(between 5pm and 9:30pm). The Capacity Investment Scheme is a key enabler,

underpinning ~18GW of this build-out and supporting continued rollout of grid

scale storage (Figure 7BreakdownofCISBateryprojectsbyStatus.).

Together, this suggests battery penetration has further to run and could be

approaching a tipping point, but we believe the largest challenge still remains

solving the need for long duration storage.