BP "Sizing up Bumerangue - Chapter 2" (Buy) Stone

Research evidence excerpt

BP "Sizing up Bumerangue - Chapter 2" (Buy) Stone

Global Research

28 May 2026ab

BP Equities

United KingdomSizing up Bumerangue - Chapter 2

Oil Companies, Major

12-month rating Buy

The Bumerangue discovery in Brazil has the potential to be worth 160p/sh once

fully developed, helping BP to sustain its production into the late 2030s and

12m price target 710p

increase its reserve life by close to 2 years. Yes, drilling uncertainties remain,

Prior : 700p

whilst the recent surprise departure of the Chair introduces another layer of

complexity in the equity story. But, with very little priced in for Brazil and a self- Price (26 May 2026) 529p

help case built on multiple levers, we see upside risk ahead of the appraisal RIC: BP.L BBG: BP/ LN

campaign that begins later in the year. In this second chapter of our three-part

series on BP, we raise our PT to 710p/sh and reiterate our Buy rating. Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range 606p-358

Market cap. £82.9b/US$111b

Brazil could help sustain BP's production towards 2040

Shares o/s 15,662m (ORD)

The Bumerangue prospect may contain ~2.4 billion barrels of liquids, making it the

Free float 100%

largest discovery for BP in 25 years. We see the field as having the potential to add close

Avg. daily volume ('000) 56,427

to 2 years to BP's reserves life (vs 7.2 years in 2025) assuming it keeps a 60% stake,

Avg. daily value (m) £310.4

whilst adding >300kboe/d of production at peak. This means Brazil could account for

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$62.4b

~13% of total output, helping BP to sustain its production into the late 2030s.

P/BV (12/26E) 1.8x

Field could be worth 160p/sh once fully developed EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

We estimate a gross field value of $6.3bn (31p/sh) in 2027, which increases to $33bn From To % ch Cons.