Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 89" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 89" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 89

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Renewed strikes cloud hopes for peace deal Analyst

Events of the past 24 hours have cast some doubts on a quick resolution and reopening henri.patricot@ubs.com

of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said that the draft MoU discussed by Iranian +33-14-888 3033

TV was a "complete fabrication" (link). More attacks have been reported too. After the Nayoung Kim

US intercepted an Iranian drone near Hormuz, it targeted a suspected drone control or Analyst

military facility close to Bandar Abbas, a major port city in southern Iran (link). In nayoung.kim@ubs.com

response, Iran claimed it had attacked a US military base (link). There is still little evidence +44-20-7568 4010

of any short-term improvement in vessel traffic or energy flows. Joshua Stone

Analyst

Hormuz crossings slightly down joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

The number of oil and gas tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz moved back to 3

yesterday, in line with the recent average, according to the latest UBS Evidence Lab data Josh Silverstein

(> Access Dataset). These included one product tanker exiting the Gulf and one product Analyst

and one LPG carrier entering the Gulf. Volumes sharply declined to 100kboe/d as a result josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

(Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d). May so far remains at 1.2Mboe/d. The number of crossings for May is still at

3.0, in line with April and significantly lower than February's daily average of nearly 50 Tom Allen

crossings. Flows through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait were slightly down, but remained Analyst