Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - European capacity growth divergen..."

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - European capacity growth divergen..."

Powered by Lab Global28 MayResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Airlines & Aerospace Equities

GlobalPlane spotting - European capacity growth

divergence in first weeks of May Airlines

Jarrod Castle, CFA

Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor +44-20-7568 8883

We use data from the UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor (> Access dataset). Amal Patel

This monthly monitor aims to aggregate global commercial air traffic data at the flight Analyst

level, with each flight then mapped to an airline operator, country/region of take-off and amal.patel@ubs.com

operation, engine type, aircraft manufacturer and body type. For each flight, a measure +44-20-7568 3973

of passenger-carrying capacity is calculated, based on available seat kilometres (ASK). Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

We think the data allows us to estimate the extent of the global airline traffic recovery Analyst

before traffic is announced or estimated, which is useful for predicting revenues. The ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

time series began in January 2018 and extends to the 17th May 2026. +44-20-7568 3240

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

Capacity declines y/y to date in April; Germany most pronounced in Europe Analyst

Analysing capacity data until mid May, we note US capacity remains broadly flat y/y (-1% cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

y/y) whilst China sequentially deteriorated to -3% y/y. Trends in Europe remain mixed +44-20-7568 4375

with Spain/Italy capacity remaining resilient growing low-mid single digit y/y whilst UK/ Ian Douglas-Pennant

France/Germany experienced low-mid single digit declines y/y. Analyst

ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com

China average weekly capacity growth deteriorated to -3% y/y (flat y/y in April).