US Daily Brief "Today's Research – May 28, 2026" Parkhill

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Brief "Today's Research – May 28, 2026" Parkhill

MORNING MEETING SUMMARY

Global Strategy - Public and Private Credit Outlook: Will private credit infect public markets? (Matthew Mish, CFA)

SUMMARY: We expect defaults to rise materially in private credit markets with Email: matthew.mish@ubs.com

AI-related disruption adding an incremental 3-4% in default risk with an upside Phone:+1-203-719 1242

skew. While leveraged loan tech spreads have seen material weakness this year,

historical comparisons to the high yield shale crisis suggest that individual sector

level stress often spreads to other second-order sectors with some lag, with

additional risk of cross-market correlations picking up. Private and public credit

markets are inherently intertwined, and the channels for spillover are often

underappreciated, including via overlapping investor bases and issuer holdings

across markets, reduced debt issuance, and other forms of hidden leverage in

bank and non-bank lending. While private credit is not yet at a systemic tipping

point, the combination of rising defaults, embedded leverage, and increasing

interconnectedness suggests that risks are building.

Top Picks - US Industrials: Our Current Highest-Conviction Calls (Amit Mehrotra)

SUMMARY: Within this note, we detail our analysts' most compelling Buy-rated Email: amit.mehrotra@ubs.com

investment idea from each of their respective industrial coverage areas. We've Phone:+1-201-352 1410

highlighted 10 stocks where we have a differentiated view, and where we have

interesting or proprietary data sources from UBS Evidence Lab, HOLT, or

elsewhere. We also discuss the main points of debate by subsector.

Shopify Inc - Demystifying Shopify's Retail POS (In-store) Business (Timothy E. Chiodo)