Boeing Co. "MAX production advancing to 47/mo" (Buy) Parsons

Research evidence excerpt

Boeing Co. "MAX production advancing to 47/mo" (Buy) Parsons

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 27.1%

Forecast dividend yield 0.2%

Forecast stock return 27.3%

Market return assumption 9.0%

Forecast excess return 18.2%

Company Description

Boeing is a global commercial aerospace & defense manufacturer and service provider.

Boeing is one of two major global providers of commercial airplanes and produces the 737,

767, 777 and 787. In its Defense business, Boeing produces manned and unmanned military

aircraft and weapons systems, including the F-18, F-15, CH-47 Chinook, AH-64 Apache, and

KC-46 tanker. Boeing also has a service business that supports commercial and defense.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our 12-month price target for Boeing reflects a 23.0X FCF multiple (2028E, discounted).

Risks

Weaker air travel macro. A slower pace of growth or declining global air travel would result in

lower demand for new aircraft and services, likely pressuring both our estimates and

valuation, depending on the magnitude and duration.

Share loss to Airbus/COMAC. Airbus has a well-understood market share lead, but should

this widen from the currently stable ~40% Boeing is capturing, it could result in downside to

our long-term growth forecast. We believe that COMAC will eventually capture a significant

portion of China demand; if it also succeeds in competing globally it could pressure Boeing

demand and pricing.

Supply chain issues. Supply chain issues have become less severe, but are entirely

unpredictable and could lead to another delivery halt. Depending on the aircraft model and

duration, this could drive lower cash flow, lower production rates, share loss to Airbus, and

more, both near-term and long-term.

Deterioration in the Defense business.