Shopify Inc "Demystifying Shopify's Retail POS (In-store) Business" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Shopify Inc "Demystifying Shopify's Retail POS (In-store) Business" (Neutral)

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Shopify Inc Equities

CanadaDemystifying Shopify's Retail POS (In-store)

Business Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target US$130.00Demystifying Shopify POS: Shopify's Retail POS business (in-store) comprises ~12%

of GMV today, on its way to potentially approaching closer to ~20% by 2035. We

believe this business is an important part of the longer-term growth algorithm and a Price (27 May 2026) US$106.60

relatively underappreciated portion of the company's terminal value, particularly given RIC: SHOP.O BBG: SHOP US

the differentiated offering (combination of Shopify eCommerce / ecosystem with in-

store POS), large TAM (in-store volumes are multiple times larger than eCommerce), and Trading data and key metrics

a relatively fragmented market with the absence of a modern leader (vs. SMB & Mid- 52-wk range US$179.01-95.40

market restaurant POS where Toast has ~30% share of volume in the US, UBSe). We first Market cap. US$138b

examined the contribution of Shopify POS within our analysis of Shopify's long-term Shares o/s 1,298m (COM)

growth algorithm, and now expand upon this topic within this report. We expect Free float 96%

Shopify's POS business to contribute ~300-500bps to Shopify's 10-year GMV CAGR of Avg. daily volume ('000) 10,177

~15%-21% (i.e., ~20% of Shopify's 10-year GMV CAGR) and ~100-200bps to the 10- Avg. daily value (m) US$1,174.8

year gross profit CAGR of ~15%-20% (i.e., ~10% of Shopify's 10-year gross profit Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$13.6b

CAGR), with the potential for the business to scale further. This report also provides a

P/BV (12/26E) 10.2x