Global Pulp & Paper "P&P Digester: Are Price Discounts Next?" Greiner

Research evidence excerpt

Global Pulp & Paper "P&P Digester: Are Price Discounts Next?" Greiner

Global Research

28 May 2026ab

Global Pulp & Paper Equities

Latin AmericaP&P Digester: Are Price Discounts Next?

Forest Products & Paper

Caio Greiner

Growing likelihood of price discounts in China. Our industry conversations over Analyst

the past few days have indicated a growing likelihood of price discounts in China caio.greiner@ubs.com

over the coming months. Buyers seem to be pushing for US$20-30/t price discounts, +55-11-2767 6294

but our impression is that suppliers aren't likely to concede all at once. Our trader Andrew Jones

contacts have indicated rising availability for spot volumes in ex-China alternative Analyst

markets, which is usually an early sign of market surplus. In China, paper prices andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

have fallen to levels that, in some cases, sit below imported and even resale pulp +44-20-7901 6545

prices, eroding profitability even for specialty grades and forcing producers to idle Timothy Handerson

capacity. This reflects weak downstream demand and an oversupplied domestic Analyst

paper market (Chenming restart, conflict-related exports disruption), with UWF timothy.handerson@ubs.com

and FBB prices both slipping below US$600/t, which reinforces buyers reluctance to +62-21-2554 5000

rebuild inventories. According to RISI, suppliers are trying to resist the price Sharon Ding

concessions, with Arauco and CMPC limiting volume availability to Chinese markets; Analyst

still, buyers have reportedly remained reluctant to commit to volumes at current sharon.ding@ubs.com

pricing levels due to ample pulp availability in the market. +852-2971 6284

Anojja Shah

We favor exposure to Suzano (Buy, PT R$69), UPM (Buy, PT €27.6). Analyst

anojja.shah@ubs.com