N.A. Chems & Pkg "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

e Middle Associate Analyst

East conflict. Ex-U.S. gas are trending in the ~$16-18 per MMBtu range, well james-p.cannon@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4057

below 2022 peaks, and we view the gas market as pricing in a shorter-term

duration for production interruptions. Gaurav Sharma

Associate Analyst

Phosphates: Phosphate prices were generally stable W/W, with higher sulfur and gaurav-l.sharma@ubs.com

ammonia costs offsetting weak demand. QTD trends remain strong, with pricing +1-212-713 4312

tracking higher sequentially for both U.S. and offshore markets, though demand is

softening as US applications wind down and Brazil applications are expected to

decline. Despite demand destruction due to affordability issues, pricing has been

supported by both elevated input costs and ongoing supply curtailments from

MOS and OCP, as well as China export limits and logistical constraints. However,

the benefit of higher pricing is more than offset by significant margin compression,

which is negative for MOS & NTR and highlights risks of further production

curtailments if pricing and raw material costs remain out of balance.

Potash: Potash markets have remained stable to modestly firm, with QTD

increases driven by higher freight costs and peak Northern hemisphere demand,

which has started to moderate as applications are reaching completion. Offshore

demand remains supportive, with Canpotex sold out through mid-year, while

potash markets have seen limited disruption from the Middle East other than

inflated logistics costs. The annual India contract recently settled higher Y/Y, but

within the range of market expectations. We continue to expect seasonal price

declines as the quarter progresses, but this has yet to eventuate with stable with