Brazilian Insurers "Pension Strength to Normalize; CXSE Still Leads" Prato

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Insurers "Pension Strength to Normalize; CXSE Still Leads" Prato

Global Research

28 May 2026ab

Brazilian Insurers Equities

Latin AmericaPension Strength to Normalize; CXSE Still

Leads Diversified Financial

Kaio Prato

Analyst

kaio.prato@ubs.com

Updating estimates post 1Q; Pension strength to normalize +55-11-3513 6573

We update our estimates post 1Q26, leading to a +1% earnings revision for CXSE and Camila Azevedo

mostly unchanged for BBSE in 26–28E, on average. The quarter was supported by Associate Analyst

strong pension dynamics, with positive net inflows (CXSE ~R$1.3bn; BBSE ~R$4bn) camila.azevedo@ubs.com

and contributions, which should partially normalize into 2Q, implying softer +55-11-2767 6881

brokerage revenues sequentially. Operating trends remain mixed, with CXSE Bruno Kenji

showing stronger mortgage-driven growth, while BBSE continues to face weaker Associate Analyst

rural dynamics, despite still controlled loss ratios. Looking ahead, higher for longer bruno.kenji@ubs.com

than expected interest rates should support financial results in 26–27E, partially +55-11-2767 6056

offsetting still pressured credit-linked products. We maintain our preference for Thiago Batista, CFA

CXSE given higher growth / more resilient drivers at this moment. We remain with a Analyst

Buy on CXSE with PT at R$20.5 (from R$21.5) and Neutral on BBSE PT at R$35 (from thiago.batista@ubs.com

R$36). We recently updated our numbers for Porto (Neutral) here. +55-11-3513 6518

CXSE: Mortgage remains key driver; adjusting growth mix

We increase 26–28E earnings by +1% on average, mainly driven by higher financial

results and improved run-off trends. 1Q showed solid mortgage performance

(+13%YoY) and easing residential due to the coupled sales strategy (+6%YoY), while