Iran disruption tracker #60: Forward curve trending lower remains a cap on absolute sector value

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #60: Forward curve trending lower remains a cap on absolute sector value

May 26, 2026

Summary

What changed today vs yesterday

●Trump to hold Cabinet meeting at Camp David Wednesday: The meeting comes amid heightened geopolitical

tensions across the Middle East and renewed focus on Iran, Hormuz shipping security and regional military

positioning.

●US defensive strikes escalate tensions: US reportedly struck two IRGC boats allegedly laying mines in the Strait

of Hormuz and also hit a SAM site near Bandar Abbas targeting US aircraft. Officials are framing the actions as

“defensive strikes,” with sources indicating the ceasefire framework remains intact for now.

●US diplomacy remains conditional: Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran are nearing a preliminary draft

stage, though the US will only accept a “good deal” or none at all.

●Hormuz crude flows show tentative signs of normalization: Bloomberg vessel-tracking data showed five ships

crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including the Singapore-linked Eagle Veracruz and Greek-owned Nissos

Keros. Combined, roughly 4 million barrels of unsanctioned crude were seen transiting the waterway — the first

such volume in about a week.

●US reportedly preparing to scale back NATO crisis support: According to a NATO briefing cited by Spiegel,

the US plans to reduce military assets available to support European allies during a crisis. Fighter jet support

could fall by one-third, bomber availability may be halved, naval commitments reduced, and submarines no longer

allocated. Europe is also expected to assume greater responsibility for reconnaissance drone operations. The move

reinforces the broader US push for Europe to shoulder more of its own defense burden.