China Property (H/A): Urban renewal’s 15th FYP; top developers’ May contracted sales likely to outperform

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China Property (H/A): Urban renewal’s 15th FYP; top developers’ May contracted sales likely to outperform

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China Property (H/A)

Urban renewal’s 15th FYP; top developers’

May contracted sales likely to outperform

Industry Overview

Sector pulled back amid weak national macro data 29 May 2026

The sector has retraced c.10% from its mid-May peak, driven by (1) a slower-than- Equity

expected pace of market recovery versus early-May expectations, with some sequential China

deceleration observed in the second half of May (see Exhibit 1 for recent market Real Estate/Property

performance) and (2) weak April national macro data, which has further raised concerns Karl Choi, CFA >>

over the sustainability of the recovery. While we acknowledge that property market Research Analyst

fundamentals cannot be entirely decoupled from broader macro conditions, we reiterate Merrill+852 3508Lynch3108(Hong Kong)

that our near-term focus is on stabilization in top-tier cities, where underlying macro karl.choi@bofa.com

conditions are relatively more resilient. Notably, AI-driven wealth creation this year has Eric Du >>

Research Analyst

supported demand at the high end, with certain projects in cities such as Hangzhou Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

achieving ASPs above RMB100k psm. We therefore maintain our conviction that key city +852 3508 3329

eric.du@bofa.com

markets are in the bottoming process, underpinned by stabilizing rents, a sharp decline

in listing volumes, and resilient transaction activity.

ASP: average selling price

Top developers’ May contracted sales likely to outperform

Further, we expect top developers’ contracted sales to again largely outperform the overall C&D: C&D International

market in May, with CRL, CMSK, and C&D International likely to post meaningful YoY