Hidroelectrica (1K) | Reduce | Machine maths (and a political trap)

Research evidence excerpt

Hidroelectrica (1K) | Reduce | Machine maths (and a political trap)

SP should be well above that level in (at EPS adj. and ful. dil. 13.26 11.50 9.41

least) 2026, given the current price situation in the market (see chart below). Consensus EPS 9.7 9.3 8.2

Net dividend 13.26 11.50 9.41

But we (continue to) assume ASP normalisation to RON400/MWh by the end of the

FY to 31/12 (RON) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E decade, driven by a) normalising energy markets and/or (!) the return of price P/E adj and ful. dil. 13.6 15.7 19.1

caps. EV/EBITDA 9.2 10.8 13.0

Austria kept price caps ever since they were introduced in 2022 - and it lowered EV/EBIT 10.4 12.4 15.4

FCF yield 7.4% 6.4% 5.3%them further ever since, too. Put simply: if there was an argument for a cap during Dividend yield 7.4% 6.4% 5.2%

extreme price cycles before, that will apply to future price hikes, too. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA -0.4 -0.3 -0.2

Hidroelectrica's share price seems to assume that it doesn't apply to Romania. We Gearing -12.1% -9.3% -5.8%

ROIC 22.9% 18.5% 15.3%

would bet against that: price caps will return. EV/IC 2.8 2.9 3.0

Deconstructing the forecasts

360° model recalibration post Q1 releases.

Valuation and investment conclusion

As we stick to a mid-term normalised (or capped) power generation ASP view for

the group, the temporary income effects of higher prices aren't moving our

valuation for the group only mildly from RON95 to RON105, our new TP. Ingo Becker, CFA

Head of Utilities/Renewable Energy

The group's institutional (and largely local) investor base tends to find it difficult +49 69 7569 6295

to sell the stock, given a) its weight in the Romanian index and b) the lack of ibecker@keplercheuvreux.com

comparable investment vehicles in the country. These factors seem to contribute

to the stock's behaviour.